Jobs to Gates, Royce and McNealy: A Historical Look at if Apple Will Survive
Steve Jobs has left Apple. I have expected to see stock prices crumble, Apple Geniuses to go rogue and iPhones to fall out of the sky; but despite the near-panic of nearly every Internet news station -- its really not that big a deal, we will be fine (unless you own large amounts of Apple stock, in which case it is time to panic).
If history has taught us anything, and it hasn't, its that changes in leadership are rarely as dramatic as we fear -- just look at Obama.
Looking at this issue historically may give the issue more perspective, as many large tech innovators have changed leadership in the past: Microsoft with Bill Gates, Intel and Robert Noyce, Sun and Scott McNealy.
Microsoft and Billy Gates
The best historical comparison we can use for enigmatic Steve Jobs, is enigmatic Bill Gates. In terms of company size, they are both high-value firms with Apple's current valuation at $349 billion and when Billy left Steve Balmer in charge of Microsoft it was valued at $600 billion. Microsoft is currently valued at just $201 billion. And I think Gate's valuation dropped the same amount (after he gave a huge chunk of his fortune to the Gates Foundation).
The succession of Jobs is similar to the story of Gates, as he will stay on the board of directors, however; it is unlikely that Jobs will hold Tim Cook's hand for a decade like Gates did for Balmer.
Perhaps we do have reason to worry with the massive devaluation of the other high-profile regime change. Or perhaps this will simply be Microsoft's year to bounce back and reclaim its throne as Supreme-Ruler-of-the-Tech-Monpoly.
On a personal note maybe we will see the creation of the Jobs Foundation -- providing starving children everywhere with iPads.
Intel and Robbie Noyce
Unlike Microsoft, Intel's tale of change is more positive. When Robert Noyce passed the reigns to engineering-superstar Gordon Moore, the company's 43-year success story continued. When Moore gave way to cut-throat businessman Andy Grove, they thrived. The succession to Craig Barratt and Paul Otellini only continued the strong leadership patterns. Intel also has a long-standing tradition of moving their CEOs to board leader positions so perhaps Apple's story will mimic Intel's.
Take into consideration of course that none of them were the strong face-of-the-company or sexy-poster-child and cancer-survivor like Steve. Nonetheless Intel did fine. It is currently valued at $115 billion.
Sun and Scott McNealy
Spoiler: this one is worse than the Microsoft example. In 2006 Scott McNealy gave up his 22-year carer steering Sun Microsystems to success when he passed the helm to Jonathan Schwartz. Schwartz then ran the ship aground. Schwartz never had much of a chance with his two years of executive management experience, despite his decade-long commitment to the company. Schwartz lasted only three years as leader before the financial crisis of 2008 dry-docked the ship forever, and they were taken over by Oracle.
Think for Yourself
Despite the rampant rumors about the future of Apple, think for yourself. Who knows whether Apple will go the route of Intel, Sun or Microsoft -- but does it really matter (other than for large-scale Apple stockholders)?
But -- just in case you are a true Mac-head -- stock up on your Apple gear now.