A Stoic’s Guide to Navigating AI Hype Cycles

The story of technology has never been a straight march of progress but a rhythm of surges and collapses. We have seen it before. The dot-com boom,¹ when every website with “.com” in its name commanded millions in valuation, only to collapse in the early 2000s. The crypto mania, where coins multiplied like weeds, most now withered and forgotten. The metaverse,² proclaimed as our inevitable digital destiny, is now a hushed whisper.

Today, the loudest chorus sings of artificial intelligence (AI). Every week, a new model claims to “redefine everything.” Investors, founders, and commentators treat the curve of progress as though it must keep bending ever upward. And yet, for those who have read history or philosophy, this is familiar ground.

Stoicism³ offers a counterweight to such excess. It reminds us not to be carried away by what is outside our control, to act with virtue, and to build for the long arc of time rather than the short fever of the moment. To navigate AI hype cycles, one might think less like a day trader and more like Marcus Aurelius,⁴ less intoxicated by promise and more anchored by permanence.

What Is Within Our Control

The Stoics divided the world into two categories: what lies within our control, and what does not. The market’s moods, the speed of venture funding, the chatter on Twitter—these belong firmly to the latter. A founder has no power over them. What remains within control is the discipline of building: the clarity of purpose, the craft of engineering, the choice of problems worth solving.

To build with a Stoic mind is to anchor attention on the durable core. Just as Epictetus⁵ taught that we should not be disturbed by the opinions of others, a builder should not be shaken by analyst forecasts or headlines promising imminent machine sentience. The test is not whether the product fits the hype of the day but whether it will still serve a purpose when the frenzy has passed.

Accepting the Cycle

The Stoic doctrine of Amor Fati, to love one’s fate, encourages acceptance of the world as it is. The hype cycle itself is not an aberration but part of the natural order of innovation. First comes the trigger, then the peak of inflated expectations, the trough of disillusionment, and finally, for the patient, the plateau of productivity.

To resist this pattern is to exhaust oneself. To accept it is to act wisely. The Stoic builder does not waste energy cursing the madness of the crowd; he navigates through it, knowing that hype will crash, that most competitors will vanish, and that only what is truly valuable will endure.

Lessons from the Enduring

It is helpful here to remember examples of things built not for seasons but for centuries.

Consider the mechanical watch. A Rolex or a Patek Philippe, crafted with precision, is not a disposable gadget but an heirloom, designed to outlive its owner. It resists obsolescence by being repairable, serviceable, and rooted in the timeless utility of keeping time itself.

Or take the humble Japanese notebook from brands like Midori or Muji. No one hypes them in glossy campaigns. Yet their paper, bindings, and design make them companions for decades of writing. They endure because they serve with quiet excellence.

In the world of software, the Unix philosophy stands tall, Do one thing and do it well. Born in the 1970s, it remains alive today because of its simplicity, clarity, and focus. No marketing storm can topple an idea so fundamental.

Contrast these with the corpses of overhyped technologies, VR headsets collecting dust, “killer apps” forgotten within months, crypto wallets now empty. Their flaw was not ambition but the failure to ground themselves in genuine, lasting need.

Building with Stoic Discipline

What does Stoic building look like in the age of AI?

It begins with essentials. A Stoic founder asks, “Does this product solve a problem that repeats daily, or merely an occasional nuisance?” Stoicism prizes utility over glamour. Products that endure are those woven into the fabric of daily work and life.

It continues with sustainability. AI models will change, APIs will break, and frameworks will age. A Stoic design anticipates impermanence. It ensures that even if the underlying model is swapped, the product’s value to the user remains intact.

It rests on virtue, ethics, transparency, and service to the user. A Stoic builder would rather ship a slower but trustworthy tool than a flashy feature that erodes trust. Virtue, for the Stoic, is the only true good; so too for a product, trust is the only durable asset.

And above all, it ignores noise. The Stoic craftsman works quietly, as the mason who lays stones that will one day become a cathedral. Headlines rise and fall, but the work itself endures.

Warnings from History

History offers stern lessons. Pets.com rose rapidly with hype, but collapsed even faster when tested by reality. Amazon, by contrast, endured because it disciplined itself on customer service and logistics, virtues that outlived the frenzy.

In AI, countless startups now chase demos that look impressive for a moment but solve little of daily relevance. The companies likely to last are those building infrastructure, tools, or deeply integrated solutions, such as things less glamorous, but more useful. Like the pipes that carry water, they are unnoticed until they fail, and then suddenly indispensable.

Marcus Aurelius once wrote: “What stands in the way becomes the way.” In the turbulence of AI hype, the obstacle is noise, distraction, and exaggeration. But these very obstacles, if approached with discipline, become the proving ground for those who wish to build something enduring.

To practice Stoicism in AI is not to scorn innovation or resist change, but to build as though your product should outlive you. It is to craft with the patience of the watchmaker, the humility of the notebook maker, and the clarity of the Unix engineer.