Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect aka Lindy’s Law is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence or competition and greater odds of continued existence into the future. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. Mathematically, the Lindy effect corresponds to lifetimes following a Pareto probability distribution.

Imagine you’ve got a magic coin that tells you how much longer something nonperishable, like a book, a joke, or a piece of tech, will last. That’s basically the Lindy Effect in a nutshell. The longer it’s been around, the longer it’s likely to stick around.

A new gadget is shiny and exciting, but full of bugs. It could crash and burn, never to be seen again. But something that’s been sailing the seas of time, like Shakespeare’s plays or the humble wheel, has already dodged countless death traps. If it were going to vanish, that would’ve happened by now. Old stuff has proven its mettle.

Ideas, books, memes, anything “Lindy” stays alive if it’s already old. A tweet that’s still funny after a week? Probably has another week in it. A startup that’s hit year five without folding? Might cruise to year ten. Of course, beware of exceptions; zombie tech can linger past its prime for a while before finally dying.

So next time you’re debating whether to binge the latest streaming show or rewatch “Friends,” remember the Lindy Effect. If it’s ancient and still kicking, maybe there’s a reason. Maybe it’s earned your attention by outlasting the competition. And if you’re writing code or building a product, aim to be the wheel, not the wooden roller coaster that vanishes after one ride.

Live Long and Prosper.